A Quick Look Backwards and a Quick Look Forwards

As we head into a year with a lot of uncertainty, I hope to give you a comfortable idea of what to expect in local real estate this year. First, let’s look back at last year.

The San Diego Association of Realtors has likely already reported statistics for 2016 by the time you read this. It will show that in 92127, home prices were up about 5.5%. However, this is very misleading. If you look at detached and attached homes independently, each was up over 13% in 2016. What is skewing the numbers is that there was a higher percentage of attached home sales reported through the MLS in 2016 than the previous year. This was due in part to a bit of hesitancy at the high end of the market as we headed into the election as well as a large number of new construction homes that were sold by builders without the MLS.

So, if last year was better than reported, what lies ahead for 2017?

I see more of the same with a potential uptick in the volume of detached sales while the attached should stay about the same. Unlike others who have published that they think we are heading into a correction, I think we should see price appreciation in the 10% range in 2017. The obvious obstacle to this is higher interest rates, but I think there will be a counterbalance to that.

The new administration is talking about removing some of the restrictions put in place by the Frank-Dodd Act. Frank-Dodd was passed after the financial crash in 2008. Of course, it took seven years to implement and is a mess. It has made it much harder for banks to do loans and therefore fewer people can qualify. Repealing some of the more onerous regulations will allow more people to qualify to buy a home. This should more than offset the expected rise in interest rates.

Of course, if I am wrong, please disregard and forget I ever said anything.

Scott Voak, the top selling agent since 2008 (data from SANDICOR MLS as of 12/31/2015). Email him to subscribe to his weekly real estate newsletter – Monday Morning Coffee.


voak_logo_newScott Voak, MBA – Broker
Managing Partner, Inland Corrido
CAL BRE #01153157
10815 Rancho Bernardo Rd #390
16710 Bernardo Center Dr.
(888) 311-6311 |